Housing need assessments in San Francisco, Vancouver, and Melbourne: normative science or neoliberal alchemy?

Abstract

Governments in much of the Global North have responded to dramatic increases in house prices and rents by setting supply-side targets for new housing in regional and local plans, based on calculations of need. We apply social constructionism to assess widely divergent needs assessments underlying housing strategies in San Francisco, US; Vancouver, Canada; and Melbourne, Australia. In San Francisco, authorities use an approach required by the state government that ignores overcrowding and other ‘invisible’ criteria. In Vancouver, authorities have taken an ambitious approach that goes beyond a minimum quantum of affordable housing to discuss limits to market production. In Melbourne, the state government has chosen to ignore its own commissioned needs assessment to de-prioritize concerns around affordable housing shortages. We conclude by recommending that planners apply greater rigor in housing needs assessments, that can inform public debates around more equitable housing policy.