Abstract
ABSTRACT We analyze housing market boom and bust phases for 18 industrialized countries using quarterly data between 1975/01 and 2016/02, by applying the turning-point algorithm on detrended house-price series. For this purpose, we compare at first how boom and bust phases change when varying the minimum cycle length. In a second step, we derive boom-bust cycles and provide some descriptive evidence on the development of macroeconomic variables during these cycles. We find that a minimum cycle length of 19 quarters, combined with a threshold, captures housing market boom and bust phases best. Moreover, our results suggest that an average boom-bust cycle endures over 60 quarters, half split across both phases. Furthermore, it is associated with price increases and decreases of 60 and 40 percent, respectively. Keywords Housing Cycles, House Prices, Real Estate Markets
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