Household Incomes and Bank Residential Mortgage in Russia

Olga Miroshnichenko,Anna Tarasova,Valeriy Gamukin

doi:10.1051/shsconf/20219302010

Olga Miroshnichenko, Anna Tarasova + Show 1 more

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1051/shsconf/20219302010

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Abstract

The influence of the incomes of the population subject to changes on bank mortgage lending was investigated using the methods of correlation and regression analysis. Three approaches to income volatility as an indicator of their volatility have been implemented: variability within certain time periods through an assessment of the coefficients of variation during the year, between periods through an assessment of the average annual income growth rates, and the variability of the distribution between income recipients through inequality indicators. According to the research results, indicators of bank residential mortgage are more strongly associated with variations in nominal income than in real one; the low level of overdue mortgage debt in the Russian banking sector is determined by a qualitative assessment of borrowers' capabilities in accordance with their income; an increase in income volatility is accompanied by a decrease in the share of overdue mortgage debt. The stability of the population's income contributes to an increase in the number and total volume of bank residential mortgage. As a result of econometric modeling, the maximum significant effect of the unemployment rate on the share of overdue mortgage debt has been established.

Highlights

Key parameters of a loan transaction are determined by indicators characterizing the borrower's income
The study is based on a statistical background formed from the indicators of the official statistics for the period of 2008–2018: indicators of residential mortgage in rubles and in foreign currency [22], the unemployment rate, the decile coefficient of funds and Gini coefficient, the consumer price index (CPI), the average resident population per year, the average per capita money income of the Russian population [23, 24]
The increase in the balance of debt on foreign currency residential mortgage is associated with the depreciation of the ruble, which increases the risks of the banking sector, further leading to a decrease in the number and volume of newly issued residential mortgage in foreign currency

Summary

Introduction

Key parameters of a loan transaction are determined by indicators characterizing the borrower's income. The amount of income can differ significantly at different time intervals within the crediting period, for example, between different months of the same year, between different years. Changes in income are possible both upward and downward. Payments on bank residential mortgage of a certain size must be made on time, and do not depend on the volatility, or variability of income. The volatility of income of mortgage borrowers is the most important risk factor for a residential mortgage.

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