Abstract
58% of Nairobi's population live in informal settlements in extremely poor conditions. Household air pollution is one of the leading causes of premature death and disease in these settlements. Regulatory frameworks and government budgets for household air pollution do not exist and humanitarian organisations remain largely inattentive and inactive on this issue. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the effectiveness of potential indoor-air related policies, as identified together with various stakeholders, in lowering household air pollution in Nairobi's slums. Applying a novel approach in this context, we used participatory system dynamics within a series of stakeholder workshops in Nairobi, to map and model the complex dynamics surrounding household air pollution and draw up possible policy options. Workshop participants included community members, local and national policy-makers, representatives from parastatals, NGOs and academics. Simulation modelling demonstrates that under business-as-usual, the current trend of slowly improving indoor air quality will soon come to a halt. If we aim to continue to substantially reduce household PM2.5 levels, a drastic acceleration in the uptake of clean stoves is needed. We identified the potentially high impact of redirecting investment towards household air quality monitoring and health impact assessment studies, therefore raising the public's and the government's awareness and concern about this issue and its health consequences. Such investments, due to their self-reinforcing nature, can entail high returns on investment, but are likely to give ‘worse-before-better’ results due to the time lags involved. We also discuss the usefulness of the participatory process within similar multi-stakeholder contexts. With important implications for such settings this work advances our understanding of the efficacy of high-level policy options for reducing household air pollution. It makes a case for the usefulness of participatory system dynamics for such complex, multi-stakeholder, environmental issues.
Highlights
Nairobi city, according to the most recent national census, is home to 3.14 million inhabitants (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2010), having grown from just under half a million at the country's independence in 1963
In this study we built a quantitative system dynamics model on the problem of household air pollution in Nairobi's slums, using inputs obtained during rounds of multi-stakeholder participatory modelling workshops
We used the formal and tested system dynamics model to compare three hypothetical scenarios involving different portfolios of policies, which helped us in better understanding the dynamics of the socio-physical system
Summary
Nairobi city, according to the most recent national census, is home to 3.14 million inhabitants (Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, 2010), having grown from just under half a million at the country's independence in 1963. The city's population growth is fuelled both by natural increase and migration from rural and other urban areas. Nairobi has been the country's principal city and it remains an attractive destination for people looking for livelihood opportunities that are lacking in the mostly agricultural rural areas. The rapid growth of the city's population has not been accompanied by sufficient provision of affordable housing and other social amenities, leading to the proliferation of slum settlements. It is estimated that Nairobi has over 150 slum settlements, scattered across the city. These settlements, which occupy b5% of the city's land mass, are home to an estimated 60–70% of the city population (Beguy et al, 2015). Numerous studies have reported the challenges that slum residents face, including the near absence of the public sector and poor access to public goods and services, with negative implications for various health outcomes (Kyobutungi et al, 2008; Mugisha, 2006)
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