House price, credit supply, and government policy in China

Abstract

Abstract. House prices in China have risen rapidly since 2000, accompanied by rapid credit expansion and falling interest rates on loans. This paper compares the stabilization effects and welfare implications of five policies on China's housing and credit markets. Three policies directly target the housing and credit markets: bank capital requirements, loan‐to‐value regulation and a property tax rule. Two broader policies are also considered: the reduction of capital controls and of the nominal exchange rate peg. To quantify the analysis, three prominent features of the Chinese economy—a monopolistically competitive banking sector that is subject to direct government control, a nominal exchange rate peg and capital controls—are built into a new Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The model is estimated with Bayesian methods. Results show that relaxing capital controls is the most effective policy for stabilizing the credit market and the overall economy, while improving welfare. The second most effective approach is bank capital requirements, followed by a property tax rule. In contrast, loan‐to‐value regulation and a relaxation of the nominal exchange rate peg result in welfare losses to the economy.