Hourly PM2.5 concentration forecast using stacked autoencoder model with emphasis on seasonality

Abstract

Accurate PM2.5 forecasting provides a possibility for establishing an early warning system to notify the public and take precautionary measures to prevent negative effects on ambient air quality and public health. Considering strong seasonal variation in meteorological conditions, in this paper, a seasonal stacked autoencoder model combining seasonal analysis and deep feature learning is proposed for forecasting the hourly PM2.5 concentration, named DL-SSAE model. The original data are firstly decomposed into four seasonal subseries according to the Chinese calendar, and then the Kendall correlation coefficient method is employed to search inherent relationships between PM2.5 concentrations and meteorological parameters within 1-h ahead for each seasonal time series. The inherent relationships of each seasonal subseries are finally extracted, learned, and modeled by different deep neural networks (stacked autoencoders for regression), and the hourly PM2.5 forecasts are yielded. The addressed model is tested by the dataset collected from three environmental monitoring stations in Beijing, China. The results demonstrate that the proposed model outperforms all other considered models with/without seasonality consideration in this paper.