Hourly photovoltaic power prediction based on signal decomposition and deep learning

Abstract

Accurate photovoltaic (PV) power prediction is important for the utilization of solar energy resources. However, PV power is non-stationary due to the variable influence of meteorological factors, which poses a challenge for accurate forecasting. In this paper, a hybrid method based on signal decomposition and a deep learning model is proposed. The hybrid model integrates complete ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise (CEEMDAN) and the Informer model. The CEEMDAN algorithm is used to separate different modes from the photovoltaic power sequence, enhancing its predictability. The deep learning model, the Informer, is employed to capture the complex relationship between photovoltaic power data and its historical data as well as external meteorological factors, ultimately enabling multi-step forecasting of photovoltaic power data. In hourly PV power forecasting experiments using a public dataset, the model exhibits significant performance improvements when compared to benchmark models such as LSTM, GRU, and Transformer. Specifically, the RMSE reduces by 6.07%-34.74% and the MAE reduces by 7.07%-37.5%. The results demonstrate that the hybrid model exhibits accurate predictive performance in the task of hourly photovoltaic power forecasting.