Hourly global solar radiation prediction based on seasonal and stochastic feature

Abstract

Accurate and detailed solar radiation data play a crucial role in the simulation of building thermal and photovoltaic systems. However, developing a highly precise and dependable solar radiation model using cost-effective data has proven challenging. This work proposes a new attenuation solar radiation model formed by conducting a comprehensive analysis of existing models and gaining new insights into solar radiation's seasonal and stochastic properties. Meanwhile, the model is constructed using easily obtainable surface meteorological parameters. The results demonstrate that the proposed model exhibits good performance in terms of prediction accuracy. Moreover, the majority of existing hourly solar radiation models have been primarily developed for clear-sky conditions. However, there is a growing demand for solar radiation hourly estimations that can uphold a high level of accuracy and reliability even in different weather state. Conversely, the proposed model is developed and validated by more than twenty year's meteorological data encompassing various weather conditions in Japan. It effectively captures the stochastic nature of solar radiation by utilizing turbidity parameters, even on cloudy and rainy days. Additionally, the inclusion of interaction variables significantly enhances its interpretability.