Hourly forecast of global irradiation using GMS satellite images

Abstract

This paper describes the methods for forecasting solar irradiance by using geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS) images. As the first attempt the authors forecasted the cloud albedo for a basic study of irradiance estimation by estimating the driving drift vector of clouds using GMS images. A new procedure is also proposed for removing the effect of ground albedo, which disturbs cloud movement analysis. This time, annual forecastable probability was estimated as 81.3% for 1 h ahead, 71.0% for 2 h ahead and 59.3% for 3 h ahead.