Hourly fine fuel moisture model for Pinus halepensis (Mill.) litter

Abstract

Pinus halepensis (Mill.) is the most widely distributed and abundant Mediterranean pine, as well as one of the species most affected by wildfires in Europe. The objective of this study was to develop and test an operationally useful fine fuel moisture prediction model for P. halepensis needle litter below the fibre saturation point, where flammability increases rapidly with decreasing moisture content. The predictive ability of the hourly Fine Fuel Moisture Code (FFMC) was also evaluated. Even though the hourly FFMC model is designed for pine litter, it consistently over-predicted moisture content of P. halepensis needle litter and could not track the rapid moisture change during the day. Experimental measurements of equilibrium moisture content and response time of dead P. halepensis needles were used to modify the hourly FFMC model. The modified model performed better than the hourly FFMC model on all evaluation parameters, with a mean absolute error of 1% moisture content. Our results suggest that fine fuel moisture prediction models should be species-specific in order to achieve the accuracy needed for precise prediction of fire behaviour.