Hourly CO2 Emission Factors and Marginal Costs of Energy Carriers in Future Multi-Energy Systems

Abstract

Hourly emission factors and marginal costs of energy carriers are determined to enable a simplified assessment of decarbonization measures in energy systems. Since the sectors and energy carriers are increasingly coupled in the context of the energy transition, the complexity of balancing emissions increases. Methods of calculating emission factors and marginal energy carrier costs in a multi-energy carrier model were presented and applied. The model used and the input data from a trend scenario for Germany up to the year 2050 were described for this purpose. A linear optimization model representing electricity, district heating, hydrogen, and methane was used. All relevant constraints and modeling assumptions were documented. In this context, an emissions accounting method has been proposed, which allows for determining time-resolved emission factors for different energy carriers in multi-energy systems (MES) while considering the linkages between energy carriers. The results showed that the emissions accounting method had a strong influence on the level and the hourly profile of the emission factors. The comparison of marginal costs and emission factors provided insights into decarbonization potentials. This holds true in particular for the electrification of district heating since a strong correlation between low marginal costs and times with renewable excess was observed. The market values of renewables were determined as an illustrative application of the resulting time series of costs. The time series of marginal costs as well as the time series of emission factors are made freely available for further use.