Abstract
Climate scientists forecast that heat waves will occur more often in the Netherlands in the coming decades. The Hotterdam study accordingly measured urban heat and modelled the surface energy balance in the Dutch city of Rotterdam. It identified in detail the city’s social, morphological, and land-use dimensions using a geographic information system (GIS), 3D models, and satellite images. It used hierarchical and multivariate regression analyses to determine the links between temperatures and the surface energy balance on the one hand, and social, morphological, and land-use aspects on the other. The Hotterdam study did establish a link between the urban heat island effect in Rotterdam and the health of its population. It also statistically explained the high rate of mortality among seniors seventy-five and over during the summer of 2006. The spatial concentration of senior citizens, the average age of the buildings they live in, and the sum of the sensible heat flux and storage heat flux play a large role. Imperviousness, the leaf area index, the building envelope, surface water, and shade are the dimensions that best explained the Rotterdam urban heat island. We mapped these aspects in two heat-maps that help in setting priorities for implementing climate adaptation measures.
Highlights
The European heat wave of 2003 was something of a wake-up call
Can the differences in the urban heat island effect between districts be explained by the morphology and land use of the city of Rotterdam?
The sum of sensible heat flux and storage heat flux was the best indicator explaining the urban heat island effect on the vulnerable part of the Rotterdam population
Summary
The European heat wave of 2003 was something of a wake-up call. The heat struck France hard that August. A heat island will aggravate the health of citizens, especially seniors In this context it is important to emphasize that both heatwaves and urban heat islands are constrained to specific areas; they are regional occurrences that impact local areas. Because heatwave events are regional and cities are complex local urban systems, research into the effect of urban heat islands usually explores one city at a time and could best be classified as a collection of case studies. The Hotterdam research project is a case study of the urban heat island effect in the Dutch city of Rotterdam with a distinct focus on the city’s social, morphological, and land-use aspects that contribute to the urban heat island effect as evidenced by the excess mortality of elderly citizens during heatwaves
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