Abstract
Abstract. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), emissions must be cut by 41–72 % below 2010 levels by 2050 for a likely chance of containing the global mean temperature increase to 2 °C. The AFOLU sector (Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use) contributes roughly a quarter ( ∼ 10–12 Pg CO2e yr−1) of the net anthropogenic GHG emissions mainly from deforestation, fire, wood harvesting, and agricultural emissions including croplands, paddy rice, and livestock. In spite of the importance of this sector, it is unclear where the regions with hotspots of AFOLU emissions are and how uncertain these emissions are. Here we present a novel, spatially comparable dataset containing annual mean estimates of gross AFOLU emissions (CO2, CH4, N2O), associated uncertainties, and leading emission sources, in a spatially disaggregated manner (0.5°) for the tropics for the period 2000–2005. Our data highlight the following: (i) the existence of AFOLU emissions hotspots on all continents, with particular importance of evergreen rainforest deforestation in Central and South America, fire in dry forests in Africa, and both peatland emissions and agriculture in Asia; (ii) a predominant contribution of forests and CO2 to the total AFOLU emissions (69 %) and to their uncertainties (98 %); (iii) higher gross fluxes from forests, which coincide with higher uncertainties, making agricultural hotspots appealing for effective mitigation action; and (iv) a lower contribution of non-CO2 agricultural emissions to the total gross emissions (ca. 25 %), with livestock (15.5 %) and rice (7 %) leading the emissions. Gross AFOLU tropical emissions of 8.0 (5.5–12.2) were in the range of other databases (8.4 and 8.0 Pg CO2e yr−1 in FAOSTAT and the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) respectively), but we offer a spatially detailed benchmark for monitoring progress in reducing emissions from the land sector in the tropics. The location of the AFOLU hotspots of emissions and data on their associated uncertainties will assist national policy makers, investors, and other decision-makers who seek to understand the mitigation potential of the AFOLU sector.
Highlights
Unabated CO2e emissions need effective mitigation action (UNEP, 2015)
Of all the sectors contributing to the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) sector participates with roughly one quarter (10–12 Pg CO2e yr−1) of the total emissions (49 Pg CO2e yr−1; IPCC, 2014)
This AFOLU analysis can be useful as a benchmark against which countries can assess their progress in reducing their AFOLU gross emissions in a comparable and comprehensive manner across the tropics
Summary
Unabated CO2e emissions need effective mitigation action (UNEP, 2015). Emissions modelling suggests that to keep the global mean temperature increase on track to reach the 2 ◦C target and to remain close to the target of 450 ppm of CO2e by 2100, global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be cut to 41–72 % below the 2010 levels by 2050, and global emissions levels must be reduced to 0 (a balance between sources and sinks) by 2070 and below 0 through removal processes after that (IPCC, 2014; Anderson, 2015; UNEP, 2015). Optimistic estimates suggest that the AFOLU sector – here used as synonym of land use sector – could contribute 20 to 60 % of the total cumulative abatement to 2030 through land-related mitigation including bioenergy (Smith et al, 2014). It is unclear where the regions with the largest AFOLU emissions (hotspots of emissions) are and how large their associated uncertainties are
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