Abstract
As a part of innovation in forecasting, scientific topic hotness prediction plays an essential role in dynamic scientific topic assessment and domain knowledge transformation modeling. To improve the topic hotness prediction performance, we propose an innovative model to estimate the co-evolution of scientific topic and bibliographic entities, which leverages a novel dynamic Bibliographic Knowledge Graph (BKG). Then, one can predict the topic hotness by using various kinds of topological entity information, i.e., TopicRank, PaperRank, AuthorRank, and VenueRank, along with pre-trained node embedding, i.e., node2vec embedding, and different pooling techniques. To validate the proposed method, we constructed a new BKG by using 4.5 million PubMed Central publications plus MeSH (Medical Subject Heading) thesaurus and witnessed the essential prediction improvement with extensive experiment outcomes over 10 years observations.
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