Hot money, accounting labels and the permanence of capital flows to developing countries: an empirical investigation

Abstract

Using maximum likelihood Kalman filtering techniques and non-parametric variance ratio statistics, we gauge the relative importance of permanent and temporary components of capital flows to Latin American and Asian developing countries over the period 1988–1997, for the broad categories of flows in the capital account: equity flows (EF), bond flows (BF), official flows (OF), commercial bank credit (BC), and foreign direct investment (FDI). We find relatively low permanent components in EF, BF and OF, while commercial BC flows appear to contain quite large permanent components and FDI flows are almost entirely permanent. These results have a natural interpretation and clear policy implications.