Abstract
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, now spreading at epidemic proportions causing a major health issue in Sri Lanka and elsewhere. No effective vaccine or a curative antiviral drug is available to prevent or treat the disease. The only way of mitigating dengue at present, is through mosquito eradication and educating the public on preventive measures which can minimizing the cycle of transfer. A theoretical model of dengue with simple mathematics is presented to gain a quantitative understanding of the pattern of dengue outbreaks in Sri Lanka and suggest control measures. The statistics on incidence of the disease reported by the Epidemiology Unit is analyzed using the model. Despite simplicity, the model possesses explanatory and predictive capacity, enabling determination of crucial parameters. The model shows that the “infectives” increase exponentially in an outbreak, provided the number of vectors per human exceeds a threshold, illustrating not only vector eradication but measures which minimize their biting frequency and preventing prolonged survival are effective safeguards. In a population consisting of 75% who are susceptible, the threshold is estimated to be 20 mosquitos per person. The model showed that the endemic equilibrium of the system can occur at any level. As demographic changes escalate mosquito breeding, they infect more and more susceptible people. The consequent increase in virus replication induces new strains broadening the genetic diversity of the virus and helping it to overcome the human immune response. The increasing endemicity of dengue due to this is demonstrated by the model.
Highlights
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, spreading at epidemic proportions causing a major health issue in Sri Lanka and elsewhere
The evolving pattern of dengue transmission leading to sporadic epidemics is a major health issue in Sri Lanka and many other tropical and subtropical countries
In the absence of an effective vaccine or a curative antiviral drug, the only way of mitigating the spread of this disease is mosquito eradication and adoption of precautionary measures to minimize the cyclical transfer of the virus [1,2]
Summary
Dengue is a mosquito-borne viral infection endemic in tropical and subtropical regions, spreading at epidemic proportions causing a major health issue in Sri Lanka and elsewhere. In the absence of an effective vaccine or a curative antiviral drug, the only way of mitigating the spread of this disease is mosquito eradication and adoption of precautionary measures to minimize the cyclical transfer of the virus [1,2]. Such programs, carefully designed, based on the epidemiology of infection have been successful in combatting the spread of mosquito borne diseases [3,4,5]. The data on distribution of dengue cases reported by the Epidemiology Unit, Ministry of Health, Sri Lanka is used to test the model predictions and suggest disease control strategies based on the analysis [17]
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