Abstract
Interactions among multiple infectious agents are increasingly recognized as a fundamental issue in the understanding of key questions in public health regarding pathogen emergence, maintenance, and evolution. The full description of host-multipathogen systems is, however, challenged by the multiplicity of factors affecting the interaction dynamics and the resulting competition that may occur at different scales, from the within-host scale to the spatial structure and mobility of the host population. Here we study the dynamics of two competing pathogens in a structured host population and assess the impact of the mobility pattern of hosts on the pathogen competition. We model the spatial structure of the host population in terms of a metapopulation network and focus on two strains imported locally in the system and having the same transmission potential but different infectious periods. We find different scenarios leading to competitive success of either one of the strain or to the codominance of both strains in the system. The dominance of the strain characterized by the shorter or longer infectious period depends exclusively on the structure of the population and on the the mobility of hosts across patches. The proposed modeling framework allows the integration of other relevant epidemiological, environmental and demographic factors, opening the path to further mathematical and computational studies of the dynamics of multipathogen systems.
Highlights
While the dynamic of infectious diseases has been traditionally studied focusing on single pathogens one at a time, increasing attention is currently being devoted to the interactions among multiple infectious agents [1]
When multiple infectious agents circulate in a given population of hosts, they interact for the exploitation of susceptible hosts aimed at pathogen survival and maintenance
Such interaction is ruled by the combination of different mechanisms related to the biology of hostpathogen interaction, environmental conditions and host demography and behavior
Summary
While the dynamic of infectious diseases has been traditionally studied focusing on single pathogens one at a time, increasing attention is currently being devoted to the interactions among multiple infectious agents [1]. Among strain-polymorphic pathogens, for example, immunemediated interaction occur when infection by a strain confers long-lasting protection against the particular strain, with partial cross-immunity against viral variants, depending on the level of similarity of their genetic and antigenic profiles. Interaction in terms of ecological interference is due to the temporary or permanent removal of a host from the population of susceptible hosts, because of infection from another strain. This may occur during the illness period and associated recovery (e.g. an individual staying at home or being admitted to the hospital) or because of deadly outcomes, generating complex competition dynamics for the exploitation of the remaining hosts
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