Horizon Scanning: A Process for Identifying Emerging Signals of Change Shaping the Future of Natural Resources Management

Abstract

Horizon scanning is a process to generate foresight – insight into how the future could unfold. Horizon scanning involves systematically searching a wide range of information sources for early signals of change, collecting those signals in a database, and exploring their possible implications for the future. The focus is often on external change in the broad contextual environment of a field or organization, i.e., the social, economic, technological, and governance domains. External change could be highly disruptive and is unlikely to be on the radar of decision makers. Early awareness of changes and monitoring their development over time can help natural resource planners, managers, and policymakers prepare for emerging challenges and opportunities. This paper introduces horizon scanning, characterizes different approaches and techniques, outlines the basic process, and briefly describes artificial intelligence in horizon scanning.