Horizon 2040. A view from Brazil. Part 1. Ecology, climate and technology

Abstract

The author discusses global megatrends, which, according to Brazilian experts, will determine the development of the world economy and society on the horizon 2040. Par-ticular attention is paid to the socio-economic consequences of the ecological and technological transition, the impact of technology and, above all, digital transformation on geopolitics, society, lifestyle and employment. Plans for the development of Brazil's energy sector for the next 10 years and the long term, factors and risks in the field of ecology and climate change, food security and agriculture are given. The main provisions of national strategies in the field of innovation, as well as a number of other official documents that determine the prospects for the development of science and technology, are considered. According to Brazilian experts, climate change and environmental degradation will exacerbate the scarcity of natural resources on the horizon 2040, giving rise to a more conflict geopolitical scenario. The protection of the Amazon and national sovereignty is the focus of the Brazilian government's special attention, given the high probability of intensifying the struggle for natural resources under the slogans of protecting the environment. By 2040, the spread of Industry 4.0 will intensify; the interaction of technologies from various fields of knowledge, such as bio- and nanotechnologies, environmental and social technologies, will increase. The exponential acceleration of disruptive technologies will threaten traditional socio-economic development efforts, especially in middle- and low-income countries.