HOPSY, a model to support strategic decision making in forest resource management

Abstract

The wood supply assessment system HOPSY has been developed to support strategic decisions made by forest owners, government and the wood processing industry in the Netherlands. The model takes account of the Dutch situation (small, scattered forest) and current Dutch forestry policy issues, e.g. expansion of the forest area and desired distribution of tree species. It provides assessments of future area per species and developments in the volume and value of growing stock and in the volume and value of potential wood supply resulting from different strategies or scenarios. Assessments are detailed by tree species and diameter classes over 5-year time intervals and a steady state is calculated. The assessments are based on one or more resource management scenarios. The system is based on a resource management model using in part the concept of singular stationary Markov processes. Although the main objective is to assess wood supply in the future, other forest products and services can be taken into account by putting constraints on parameters. The model is suitable for assessing long-term wood supply in forests of all sizes regardless of the internal forest structure and stand composition. Assessments can be used to formulate the long-term forest policy and consistent long-term forest objectives. The first experiences of using the model at local and national level are encouraging. The model seems to be generally applicable in forest management decision-making.