Hope Is Around the Corner: Determining the Effect of Neighborhood Revitalization on Crime Through an Evaluation of Houston HOPE

Abstract

Vacant lots can attract debris, are often covered with overgrown vegetation, and at times, serve as hot spots for crime. Given the alignments associated with vacant lots, cities often try to revitalize or restore vacant lots to usable parcels. However, there is little research that examines the relationship between revitalization efforts for vacant lots and crime. This study seeks to determine how Houston HOPE—a revitalization project—affects crime trends within Houston, Texas. Data from the Houston Police Department are used to analyze the progress in the HOPE intervention on violent and property crime, and nuisance calls for service using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) modeling. We find that, for some HOPE areas, violent and property crimes and nuisance calls for service decreased, whereas, in other HOPE areas, those crimes and calls increased. Our results provide mixed support for the HOPE intervention and the utility of neighborhood revitalization efforts to influence criminal behavior.