Abstract
Uncertainty is an essential characteristic of our lives. However, by moving from one country to another, from a familiar context to an unfamiliar one, uncertainty becomes a key element of migrants’ decisions. In times of restricted mobility regimes, migrants often do not know if they will be able to reach the desired destination. Even if they manage to do so, it is still uncertain if they will be able to fulfil their aspirations. However, uncertainty also leaves room for hope. Departing from the conceptualisation of hope as the simultaneity of both potentiality and uncertainty and from the concept of circumstantial migration, this article analyses (1) retrospectively the decision of Senegalese migrants to move to Brazil and (2) the intentions of onward migration. Based on empirical data collected through ethnographic fieldwork in four Brazilian cities, this article shows how migration as a form of social hope is redirected to new destinations and that this redirection is a consequence of circumstances and coincidences, which enable or prevent movement. Potential positive outcomes of migration outweighed negative ones, which play a minor role and hardly affect decisions to leave Senegal. However, decisions to emigrate are often based on incomplete information and ill-informed expectations regarding the circumstances at the destination and can lead to feelings of disillusion. The impact of uncertainties shows a more differentiated picture in the context of onward migration intentions. While some migrants are willing to take big risks in onward migration, others try to minimize uncertainties.
Highlights
Hope is without a doubt an essential feature of migration decision-making, a “crucial dynamic motivating migration processes” (Mar, 2005, p. 364)
Migration opportunities for Senegalese are becoming increasingly rare and the ability to move internationally is limited in times of restricted mobility regimes
This impacts the choice of Brazil as a destination in two ways
Summary
Hope is without a doubt an essential feature of migration decision-making, a “crucial dynamic motivating migration processes” (Mar, 2005, p. 364). Sudden departures and the necessity and willingness to grasp opportunities may increase risks and uncertainties of migrations since migrants may take decisions without much information about the conditions and opportunities structures at the destination. This may lead to feelings of disillusion and desires for renewed movements. This article discusses questions of hope, ability, uncertainty, disillusion and coincidence in the context of mobility decisions by Senegalese migrants in Brazil These questions are analysed retrospectively regarding the decision to emigrate from Senegal as well as in the context of onward migration intentions and aspirations in Brazil. The concept of circumstantial migration can be a fruitful addition to the analysis of hope as it allows to examine how hope is created or lost in specific situations and under specific circumstances
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