Hong Kong’s Democratic Prospects after the 17th CCP Congress

Abstract

Paper for the Association of Chinese Political Studies International Symposium & the 21st ACPS Annual Meeting, 11 to 12 October 2008The 17th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) heralded new leadership for China’s administration of Hong Kong affairs and also promised greater inner-party democracy. Taken together, these events could portend changes in policies and approaches by Beijing towards Hong Kong’s democratic evolution, which to date, have been less than satisfactory to some in Hong Kong. Nor has it resulted in the model political transition or control over Hong Kong that Beijing has desired.Since China’s resumption of sovereignty over Hong Kong in 1997, realization of the promise of universal suffrage for Hong Kong has remained constrained, elusive and amorphous. Indeed, Beijing-induced ambiguities, shifting definitional constructs and differing interpretations by primary stakeholders in Hong Kong’s political development over what actually constitutes “democracy” have characterized the struggle for suffrage in the Special Administrative Region.Now, ten years on, demands for “real democracy,” a defined timetable, and a faster pace toward universal suffrage in Hong Kong are mounting and could lead to a more dramatic confrontation with Beijing. Some disillusioned Hong Kong democrats have criticized post-17th CCP National People’s Congress Standing Committee decisions on Hong Kong electoral reforms and the timetable for suffrage, suggesting that more radical political actions may be in order if Beijing continues to retard the progress of reform. Such developments would likely emasculate advances towards allowing universal suffrage in Hong Kong, subvert or delay plans to expand democracy within the CCP, and represent a major challenge for Chinese leadership.This paper proposes to examine what has been China’s policy towards allowing universal suffrage in Hong Kong, what it considers democracy and universal suffrage to encapsulate, and how those policies and definitions may change after the 17th CCP congress given the new leadership responsible for Hong Kong affairs and emphasis on expanding democracy within the Party.