Hong Kong After the Sino-British Agreement: The Limits to Change

Abstract

AFTER THE TORTUOUS and agonizing process of the Sino-British negotiation over the future of Hong Kong ultimately ended in 1984 with the signing of the Sino-British Agreement,' Hong Kong was forced willy-nilly into a potentially turbulent period of political transition. Leading all the other items in the political agenda for this period was the design and implementation of changes in political institutions in order to assure a smooth handover of sovereignty in 1997, as well as to preserve stability and prosperity until and beyond that date. Granted that the political system of Hong Kong (dominated by a non-elective bureaucratic government deriving its legitimacy from the British Crown) has so far been quite effective in undergirding the postwar development of Hong Kong, and that both China and Britain have unequivocally declared their determination to maintain its status quo, the issue of political reform would seem to be noncontroversial. Even if political reforms are to be instituted, the fact that they are charged with explicit social and, economic objectives should constrict substantially the options for change available to the two governments. Moreover, the political impotence of Hong Kong vis-a-vis the two governments, and the weakness of the local popular political organizations, would preclude any serious political resistance to the reform plans imposed unilaterally by the two governments. Possibly, by implementing political reforms in a top-down fashion, the pattern of political organization and mobilization in Hong Kong could be regulated so as to muster support for Sino-British policies and reduce political uncertainties. Therefore, the issue of political reform should not be so contentious that it will haunt the future of Hong Kong. Nevertheless, reality turns out to be much more complicated. In the next few years, the issue of political reform will dominate Hong Kong's political scene, and engender a new and relatively volatile situation. Even though it is almost certain that the issue will rapidly subside afterwards