Abstract
In contrast to the Canadian crime drop of the 1990s, homicide appeared as an anomaly with a peak in the 1970s. Yet previous studies tend to refer only to completed homicides, and here we also include attempts. The resulting trend is remarkably similar to that in Canadian property crime for five decades. This seems unlikely to be a coincidence and we speculate about a causal link.
Highlights
The existence of a Canadian crime drop is well established (Ouimet 1999, 2002; Pottie Bunge et al 2005; Mishra and Lalumiere 2009; Farrell and Brantingham 2013; Hodgkinson et al 2016) and similar to that of other high income countries (Zimring 2006; Tseloni et al 2010)
We suggest that the apparently anomalous homicide trend is an artefact of the definition of homicide that has been utilised which included only completed homicides
Other definitional issues relating to the distinction between serious assaults and attempted homicide are discussed in the literature, but we suggest there is a strong case
Summary
The existence of a Canadian crime drop is well established (Ouimet 1999, 2002; Pottie Bunge et al 2005; Mishra and Lalumiere 2009; Farrell and Brantingham 2013; Hodgkinson et al 2016) and similar to that of other high income countries (Zimring 2006; Tseloni et al 2010). The potential anomaly is important because it implies the drivers of homicide trends differ from those of other types of crime. We suggest that the apparently anomalous homicide trend is an artefact of the definition of homicide that has been utilised which included only completed homicides. We combine attempted and completed homicides to produce an aggregate trend, for the following reasons. In Canadian law most attempted and completed crimes are aggregated—an attempted robbery is considered as a robbery for example—and the only form of crime that is differentiated is homicide. It could be argued that since intent is often the same for attempted and completed homicides, their aggregation is preferable when the cause of behavioural change is sought. Other definitional issues relating to the distinction between serious assaults and attempted homicide are discussed in the literature Other definitional issues relating to the distinction between serious assaults and attempted homicide are discussed in the literature (see e.g. Harris et al 2002; Andresen 2007; Cook et al 2017), but we suggest there is a strong case
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