Abstract
Recent declines in homicide rates in many U.S. cities have prompted a search for potential explanations. Changes in drug market activity, including reductions in crack cocaine use, have been offered as contributing factors to this decline. Combining data from structured interviews with policy makers and community representatives and from existing data programs (especially Drug Use Forecasting), the relationship of changing drug use and drug market patterns to homicide trends is extensively investigated in 6 cities. Findings include a low awareness of specific local drug use trends, strong perceptions of links between drugs (particularly crack) and violence, and a correlation between trends in cocaine use among arrestees and homicide rates. The latter finding may be at least partially explained by the larger evident risks, both individual and aggregate, associated with crack use and crack purchases.
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