Homicide and Deterrence: The Japanese Case

Abstract

This article uses the economic approach to examine the relationship between the Japanese homicide rate and penalty structures during the past half century. The empirical results give some support for the hypothesis that potential criminals are deterred by sanctions (proxies for the certainty and severity of punishment are inversely related to the homicide rate.) Virtually no support is found for the hypothesis that the decline in the Japanese homicide rate resulted directly from economic growth. The results indicate that, even after taking into account changes in the Japanese penalty structure, the single most important factor explaining the decline in homicide in Japan is the secular trend. This contrasts sharply with other industralized countries which have experienced secular trends toward higher homicide rates. Factors that caused Japan's secular trend to be so different from other industralized nations need further clarification and investigation.