Homer-Dixon’s Environmental Scarcity Theory and Potential for Conflict in the Nile River Basin (NRB)

Abstract

By the end of the twentieth century, the realm of international relations was characterized by resource geopolitics (i.e., the potential for conflict as a result of the scarcity of vital resources across political boundaries). The idea presented by early scholars regarding the link between the environment and conflict was speculative and imprecise, hence the need for a theory that addresses this link. The hypothesis behind the environmental scarcity theory is that “resource scarcity, through the three causal forms of scarcity (i.e., demand-induced, supply-induced, and structural-induced scarcity), has the potential to cause conflict.” In the age of the Anthropocene, environmental scarcity, and therefore conflict, is increasingly coming to the fore. This chapter argues that due to population growth and degradation and depletion of the Nile, along with its uneven distribution, fierce competition over the already finite water resource increases the potential for an inter-riparian conflict in the Nile Basin. Understanding the link between the two variables—environmental scarcity (independent variable) and violence (dependent variable)—requires an analysis of the effects and nature of environmental scarcity.