Abstract
The determinants of travel demand, i.e., commute and non-commute trip generation, in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are unknown, while the main factors behind travel generation in high-income countries have been studied since the 1990 s. This paper aims at shedding light on these determinants and comparing them in Cairo, Istanbul, and Tehran as case-study cities. Three research questions were answered by this paper: (1) are there any significant differences between urban travel generation levels of the three cities? (2) which factors determine urban travel generation, including commute trips and non-work activities in the large agglomerations of the MENA region? and (3) how similar or different are these determinants in the three mentioned cities? The analysis was based on a mobility survey undertaken in 2017 in 18 neighborhoods of the three cities. The data resulted from 8284 face-to-face interviews (Cairo: 2786, Istanbul: 2781, Tehran: 2717). Weighted Least Squares models showed that 19 and 18 variables related to individual and household status, socioeconomics, attitudes, the built environment, and accessibility define commute and non-commute trip generation, respectively. The results of Analysis of Variance indicate that these determinants are almost similar in a holistic view, but there are some relative differences between them in the three cities. This study addresses the contextual differences between the determinants in the MENA region and high-income countries and concludes that travel demand is context sensitive. The findings specially show how street network configuration and neighborhood-level facilities can be a tool for urban planners to control mobility demand. Highly connected street networks with adequate neighborhood amenities are associated with the frequency of commute and non-commute trips in the case cities, thus planners and decisionmakers in the MENA region are encouraged to use land use and street connectivity to gain control on trip generation for attaining a more sustainable travel modal share.
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