Home team advantage in the English Premier League

Abstract

The home team advantage in association football is a well known phenomenon. The aim of this paper is to offer a different view on the home team advantage. Usually, in association football, every two teams—team A and team B—play each other twice in a season. Once as a home team and once as a visiting, or away team. This gives us two results between teams A and B which are combined together to evaluate whether team A, against its opponent B, recorded a result at its home ground—in the comparison to the away ground—that is better, even, or worse. This leads to a random variable with three possible outcomes, i.e. with trinomial distribution. The combination and comparison of home and away results of the same two teams is the key to eliminate problems with different squad strengths of teams in a league. The bayesian approach is used to determine point and interval estimates of unknown parameters of the source trinomial distribution, i.e. the probability that the result at home will be better, even, or worse. Moreover, it is possible to test a hypothesis that the home team advantage for a selected team is statistically significant.