Home is where the hustle is: the influence of crowds on effort and home advantage in the National Basketball Association

Abstract

ABSTRACT Studies have consistently shown crowds contribute to home advantage in the National Basketball Association (NBA) by inspiring home team effort, distracting opponents, and influencing referees. Quantifying the effect of crowds is challenging, however, due to potential co-occurring drivers of home advantage (e.g., travel, location familiarity). Our aim was to isolate the crowd effect using a “natural experiment” created by the Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which eliminated crowds in 53.4% of 2020/2021 NBA regular season games (N = 1080). Using mixed linear models, we show, in games with crowds, home teams won 58.65% of games and, on average, outrebounded and outscored their opponents. This was a significant improvement compared to games without crowds, of which home teams won 50.60% of games and, on average, failed to outrebound or outscore their opponents. Further, the crowd-related increase in rebound differential mediated the relationship between crowds and points differential. Taken together, these results suggest home advantage in the 2020/2021 NBA season was predominately driven by the presence of home crowds and their influence on the effort exerted to rebound the basketball. These findings are of considerable significance to a league where marginal gains can have immense competitive, financial, and historic consequences.