Home advantage and referee bias in European football

Abstract

Home advantage is well documented in a wide range of team sports including association football (soccer). Home team crowd support has been shown to be a likely causal factor and its influence on referee decision-making appears to play a significant role. Match data from the 2009/2010 and 2010/2011 seasons of the Union of European Football Associations (UEFA) Champions League and Europa League were used to investigate referee bias in terms of the association between match location (home vs. away) and disciplinary sanctions used by football referees. The adjusted mean number of yellow cards received by home and away teams and the ratios of these means were estimated from Poisson regression models. After controlling for within-match measures of attacking dominance referees in the Champions League and Europa League issued 25% (p<0.001) and 10% (p=0.002) more yellow cards, respectively, to away teams than to home teams. The higher level of home team bias in the Champions League appeared to be mainly due to higher crowd densities. In a combined analysis of both UEFA leagues the magnitude of referee bias increased with increasing crowd density (p<0.001). Crowd size and crowd proximity were not associated with referee bias after controlling for crowd density. These results provide further evidence that crowd support influences referee decisions. Failure to control for within-match team performance may over-estimate the extent of referee bias in terms of the number of disciplinary sanctions used.