Holzerntepotenzial im Schweizer Wald: Simulation von Bewirtschaftungsszenarien

Abstract

Timber-harvesting potential of Swiss forests: simulation of management scenarios Growing stock in Swiss forests has, during the past 10 years, increased by 3% overall, with large regional variation. The increase in Alpine regions has been considerable, while growing stock has decreased on the Plateau. We simulated 5 different 100-year management scenarios with the forest development model Massimo. In the base scenario “constant growing stock”, 7.7 million m3 of merchantable timber could be harvesting annually. In the scenario “increasing growing stock”, the harvesting potential was lower (6.3 million m3), but it was higher in the scenarios “continually high increment” (7.8 million m3), “high demand for coniferous timber“ (8.5 million m3) and “high demand for wood fuel or chemical timber” (8.1 million m3). With time, timber-harvesting costs increase for all scenarios, with the least increase for the base scenario. If the prevailing management system continues (scenario “increasing growing stock”), stands will become denser and growing stock increase, with the risk of more disturbances, e.g. wind, snow-breakage, or bark beetles. In the Plateau, however, the regional overuse of recent decades could limit the overall timber-harvesting potential. In Alpine regions, stabilizing growing stock (scenario “constant growing stock”) could improve the resistance of forests, but the harvesting costs per cubic meter might be higher. These management scenarios provide decision makers with indications of how particular forest management strategies could affect the development of growing stock, harvesting amounts and costs.