Holt's exponential smoothing method for forecasting silver prices

Abstract

In this paper, it is suggested that for forecasting the silver prices, the optimum technique is the Holt's exponential smoothing method. For getting this conclusion we have collected the data on average monthly silver prices for period of 7 years from Jan 2008 to Dec 2014 obtained from World Silver Council and applied Single Exponential Smoothing Method, Holt's Exponential Smoothing Method and Auto Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) Methods. By comparing the above techniques basing on measures of accuracy say, Mean Absolute Percent Error(MAPE) measure, it was found that MAPE is minimum for Holt's method. Using this method to forecast the silver prices for the succeeding period.