Abstract
This paper illustrates long-term trends in human population and climate from the Late Pleistocene to the Late Holocene (14,000–2500 cal. yr. BP) in order to assess to what degree climate change impacted human societies in the Near East. It draws on a large corpus of archaeo-demographic data, including anthropogenic radiocarbon dates (n = 10,653) and archaeological site survey (n = 22,533), and 16 hydro-climatic records from cave speleothems and lake sediments. Where possible, inferred population dynamics and climatic trends have been made spatially congruent, and their relationships have been statistically tested. Demographic proxies and palaeoclimatic records have been compared for the greater Near East as a whole and for seven major geo-cultural regions (Anatolia, Arabia, Cyprus, Iran, Levant, Mesopotamia, and South Caucasus). This approach allows us to identify regionalised patterns in population and climate trends. The results suggest a clear relationship between population and climate in the Late Pleistocene and Early Holocene (14,000–8326 cal. yr. BP) with population increasing in concomitance with wetter climatic conditions. During the Middle Holocene (8326-4200 cal. yr. BP) there is an increased regionalisation of demographic patterns, followed by marked interregional contrasts in the Late Holocene (4200-2500 cal. yr. BP). We identify a decoupling of demographic and climatic trends from the Middle Holocene onwards, and relate this to the existence of more complex societies. These were less vulnerable to gradual climatic shifts due to their logistical infrastructure, social organisation and technological capacity. We also assess the impact of five Rapid Climate Changes (RCC) which occurred during the study period on population levels. Although all five RCC (the so-called 10.2 k, 9.2 k, 8.2 k, 4.2 k, and 3.2 k cal. yr. BP events) are visible to some degree in our palaeoclimatic and demographic proxies, there are marked regional variations in magnitude and duration.
Highlights
Population growth occupies a central role in public debate due to its implications for subsistence strategies, environmental change, and migration, and its relationship with exogenous factors such as climate variations
A recent study by Roberts et al (2018) showed that neolithisation and population increase occurred in the Fertile Crescent earlier than in the Anatolian plateau, and argued that this delay was caused by more favourable climatic conditions in the former area during the climatic deterioration of the Younger Dryas stadial
The inferred demographic trends show significant departures from the null model and on the basis of the global pvalue (
Summary
Population growth occupies a central role in public debate due to its implications for subsistence strategies, environmental change, and migration, and its relationship with exogenous factors such as climate variations. In the archaeological and anthropological debate, population has been identified as a driver for cultural fluctuations) is critical for our understanding of cultural and environmental changes at a range of scales In this context, the Near East represents an excellent laboratory in which to investigate long-term relationships between demographic and climatic trends. BP onwards demographic trends become decoupled from those of climate, perhaps due to the technological advancement, organisational capacity and logistical infrastructure of more complex societies which makes populations more resilient to drought and food stress (Rosen 2007; Lawrence et al, 2016; Roberts et al, 2019) Alongside these longer-term trajectories, the Near East experienced several major rapid climate changes during the Holocene BP event as a major driver of political and social collapse (Langgut et al, 2013; Cline, 2015; Izdebski et al, 2016; Kaniewski et al 2015, 2019)
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