HOLISTIC RISK INDEX FOR DECISION-MAKING IN MANAGEMENT OF RUST Hemileia vastatrix IN COFFEE PLANTATIONS IN HONDURAS

Abstract

One of the diseases that most affect coffee plantations (Coffea arabica) is the fungus Hemileia vastatrix, which causes rust. The lack of a decision-making method with a holistic approach limits the effective management of this disease. Therefore, this study aimed to determine the Holistic Risk Index (HRI) for rust in coffee-growing zones of El Lago de Yojoa, El Paraíso and Olancho, Honduras. First, a participatory diagnosis of coffee industry was implemented; surveys were conducted to determine the socioeconomic status of 43 coffee producers, also their coffee farms were sampled. The diagnosis indicated that deficient management of the coffee plantations, the incidence of pests and a precarious economy for coffee growers were the most important problems. One threat variable (leaves with rust); three vulnerability variables (altitude, coffee variety and shade); and three response capacity variables (technification, harvesting and productive coffee trees) were identified. The HRI and resilience were related by means of a power equation and from that result the criteria for categories were determined. When comparing the three coffee-growing zones with a multivariate analysis of variance and a canonical discriminant analysis for the set of HRI component values, the El Paraíso coffee-growing zone was different from the Lago de Yojoa zone, but these two zones did not differ from the Olancho zone. The same result was found for the response capacity, where the harvest and technification variables had a greater influence in El Paraíso and the productive category variable of coffee trees was more important in Olancho. Finally, a work plan was proposed to reduce the risk and increase the resilience of producers to rust.