Hizb ut-Tahrir: An Islamist threat to Central Asia?1

Abstract

In international relations, and in particular when it comes to security and terrorism, it is sometimes easier to focus on one group seen as the source of all evils rather than analyzing the numerous and complex problems that help an extremist group to succeed. After Al-Qaida, Hizb ut-Tahrir seems to be the new Main Villain everyone is worried about, in particular when it comes to the analysis of the situation in the Silk Road. This paper aims to answer an important and fashionable question in the field of Central Asian studies: Can Hizb ut-Tahrir eventually be the next Al-Qaida of the region, both threatening the Central Asian states and the West? The answer to this question can be alarming, yet unclear. One can not avoid the fact that this Islamist group is indeed very important, not only in Uzbekistan, but also in much of the rest of Central Asia. HT's ideology is as elaborate as it sounds threatening for the future of the region. The goal of this paper, however, is to look at the broader picture. Among other things, one can not rule out the fact that there could be an Islamist threat—in the form of Hizb ut-Tahrir and others—in the future of Central Asia. However, Islamism is not the only threat, and Hizb ut-Tahrir is definitely not the only Islamist security threat for Central Asia. This paper takes the position that the possibility for destabilization because of sub-national rivalries and the actions of more violent groups, such as the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), appears to be a much more serious threat than that posed by Hizb ut-Tahrir.