Abstract
INTRODUCTION HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions. METHODS Data collected by Brazilian surveillance systems were used to derive HIV incidence estimates by age group (15-24; 25+) and sex from 1986 to 2018. This study used a back-calculation method based on the first CD4 count among treatment-naïve cases. Incidence estimates for the population aged 15 years or over were compared to Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) estimates from 2000 to 2018. RESULTS Among young men (15-24 years), HIV incidence increased from 6,400 (95% CI: 4,900-8,400), in 2000, to 12,800 (95% CI: 10,800-15,900), in 2015, reaching incidence rates higher than 70/100,000 inhabitants and an annual growth rate of 3.7%. Among young women, HIV incidence decreased from 5,000 (95% CI: 4,200-6,100) to 3,200 (95% CI: 3,000-3,700). Men aged ≥25 years and both female groups showed significant annual decreases in incidence rates from 2000 to 2018. In 2018, the estimated number of new infections was 48,500 (95% CI: 45300-57500), 34,800 (95% CI: 32800-41500) men, 13,600 (95% CI: 12,500-16,000) women. Improvements in the time from infection to diagnosis and in the proportion of cases receiving antiretroviral therapy immediately after diagnosis were found for all groups. Comparison with GBD estimates shows similar rates for men with overlapping confidence intervals. Among women, differences are higher mainly in more recent years. CONCLUSIONS The results indicate that efforts to control the HIV epidemic are having an impact. However, there is an urgent need to address the vulnerability of young men.
Highlights
HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions
The success of antiretroviral therapy (ART), combined with the benefits of treatment as prevention (TasP) and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), have generated new expectations surrounding the end of the HIV epidemic[1]
The expansion of antiretroviral therapy has lengthened the time to the onset of AIDS11, making inferences about HIV incidence based on AIDS reported cases limited
Summary
HIV incidence estimates are essential to monitor the progress of prevention and control interventions. Men aged ≥25 years and both female groups showed significant annual decreases in incidence rates from 2000 to 2018. In 2018, the estimated number of new infections was 48,500 (95% CI: 45300-57500), 34,800 (95% CI: 32800-41500) men, 13,600 (95% CI: 12,500-16,000) women. HIV incidence can be calculated based on the change in HIV prevalence estimated at two points in time[12]. The assumption underlying this methodology is that the number of new infections is equal to the number of prevalent cases at the second point in time, minus the number of cases who survived between the two time points. This is the basis of the UNAIDS methodology to estimate key HIV indicators, such as the number of PLHIV, new infections, and AIDS deaths using complex mathematical models[13]
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