HIV Evolution: A Quantification of the Effects Due to Age and to Medical Progress

Abstract

This paper offers an analysis of HIV/AIDS dynamics, defined by CD4 levels and Viral load, carried out from a macroscopic point of view by means of a general stochastic model. The model focuses on the patient's age as a relevant factor to forecast the transitions among the different levels of seriousness of the disease and simultaneously on the chronological time. The third model considers the two previous features simultaneously. In this way it is possible to quantify the medical scientific progresses due to the advances in the treatment of the HIV. The analyses have been performed through non-homogeneous semi-Markov processes. These models have been implemented by using real data provided by ISS (Istituto Superiore di Sanita, Rome, Italy). They refer to 2159 subjects enrolled in Italian public structures from September 1983 to January 2006. The relevant results include also the survival analysis of the infected patients. The computed conditional probabilities show the different responses of the subjects depending on their ages and the elapsing of time.