Abstract

More persons living with HIV reside in the Southern United States than in any other region, yet little is known about HIV molecular epidemiology in the South. We used cluster and phylodynamic analyses to evaluate HIV transmission patterns in middle Tennessee. We performed cross-sectional analyses of HIV-1 pol sequences and clinical data collected from 2001 to 2015 among persons attending the Vanderbilt Comprehensive Care Clinic. Transmission clusters were identified using maximum likelihood phylogenetics and patristic distance differences. Demographic, risk behavior, and clinical factors were assessed evaluating “active” clusters (clusters including sequences sampled 2011–2015) and associations estimated with logistic regression. Transmission risk ratios for men who have sex with men (MSM) were estimated with phylodynamic models. Among 2915 persons (96% subtype-B sequences), 963 (33%) were members of 292 clusters (distance ≤1.5%, size range 2–39). Most clusters (62%, n = 690 persons) were active, either being newly identified (n = 80) or showing expansion on existing clusters (n = 101). Correlates of active clustering among persons with sequences collected during 2011–2015 included MSM risk and ≤30 years of age. Active clusters were significantly more concentrated in MSM and younger persons than historical clusters. Young MSM (YMSM) (≤26.4 years) had high estimated transmission risk [risk ratio = 4.04 (2.85–5.65) relative to older MSM] and were much more likely to transmit to YMSM. In this Tennessee cohort, transmission clusters over time were more concentrated by MSM and younger age, with high transmission risk among and between YMSM, highlighting the importance of interventions among this group. Detecting active clusters could help direct interventions to disrupt ongoing transmission chains.

Highlights

  • Abetter understanding of HIV transmission dynamics is needed in areas of the Southeastern United States where HIV incidence has not significantly declined

  • More persons living with HIV reside in the Southern United States than in any other region, yet little is known about HIV molecular epidemiology in the South

  • We investigated HIV transmission patterns among persons who received care in middle Tennessee through genetic cluster and phylodynamic analyses with sampling extending 2001–2015, identifying over one third of the study population linked in closely related clusters

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Summary

Introduction

Abetter understanding of HIV transmission dynamics is needed in areas of the Southeastern United States where HIV incidence has not significantly declined. Southern U.S states are an epicenter of the national epidemic, accounting for nearly 44% of people living with HIV, but only one third of the U.S population.[1] The region faces significant demographic disparities with disproportionate HIV burden among racial/ethnic minorities, in nonurban areas, and among men who have sex with men (MSM).[1] In addition, increased rates of opiate injection drug use in the region,.

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