Hitting the Target: Doubling Primary School Enrollments in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2015

Abstract

This paper estimates the number of children who will need to attend and complete primary school in sub-Saharan Africa in order for the current international development target of universal primary education (UPE) by 2015 to be attained. In addition, a variety of demand constraints that will also affect the attainment of UPE are identified and assessed. The main conclusion of this analysis is that target enrollment growth for the region as a whole between 2000 and 2015 is not much greater than enrollment growth during the 1990s. For at least half of all countries in the region, however, this will require very high levels of sustained enrollment growth during the next 15 years. There are also major concerns about the overall level of demand for primary education by individuals and households. In particular, formal sector employment contracted in many countries during the 1990s and returns to education in the smallholder agriculture and informal sectors continue to remain low. But, with sufficient commitment from governments and donor agencies to increase educational capacity and improve the quality of schooling, the UPE target can be attained as part of a comprehensive strategy for poverty reduction in each country.