Hitting estimates on Einstein manifolds and applications

Abstract

Abstract We generalize the Benjamini–Pemantle–Peres estimate relating hitting probability and Martin capacity to the setting of manifolds with Ricci curvature bounded below. As applications we obtain: (1) a sharp estimate for the probability that Brownian motion comes close to the high curvature part of a Ricci-flat manifold, (2) a proof of an unpublished theorem of Naber that every noncollapsed limit of Ricci-flat manifolds is a weak solution of the Einstein equations, (3) an effective intersection estimate for two independent Brownian motions on manifolds with nonnegative Ricci curvature and positive asymptotic volume ratio. We also obtain generalizations of (1) and (2) for the manifolds with two-sided Ricci bounds and Einstein manifolds with nonzero Einstein constant.