History Matching of Petroleum Engineering Graduation Rates

Abstract

An email discussion among the four members focused on one of several charts created by Tom Blasingame, 2021 SPE president. A summary of their insights follows. Tom Blasingame explained the chart, which led to further discussion. The “reference” trend shown (red) occurs over the period from 1970 to 2000, which peaked at 1,587 BS graduates around 1984. It is a Gaussian probability distribution fitted to the data provided by Lloyd Heinze, professor at Texas Tech University’s Bob L. Herd Department of Petroleum (solid black line), and data extracted from a 1991 paper by John C. Calhoun, who was then at Texas A&M University and previously served as the 1964 SPE president. The reference trend is then shifted in time to the period from 2003 to 2033 (green). The mean and standard deviation of the statistical trends are the same; only the midpoint in time and peak in BS graduates are adjusted for each period. We note an excellent match of the data in the period from 2003 to 2033. Taking the reference trend back in time to the period from 1940 to 1970 (purple trend), we do not get a reasonable match of the data, with the exception of a slump from about 1951 to 1956. It is difficult to explain this feature, other than to note that in this timeframe the US began to import significant quantities of oil. Regardless, we note the statistical trend does capture the beginning and end of this distribution, and we recognize that there is no single peak in the data trend from 1940 to 1970. If we follow the historical trends and the current increase in oil prices and consider the need for oil and gas in the foreseeable future, we predict that the downward trend may stabilize as it did before and level out at the range of 250 graduates a year, while the demand for graduates is much higher. In this scenario, I consider the following positives and negatives. - Negative publicity around fossil fuels and social/political pressure to shut down the oil industry will continue, pulling the graduates’ figures down. - Current energy shortages and price spikes will remind the public that the end of oil and gas is not near, which will start to improve the image of petroleum engineering. - Deepening global economic crises and rising inflation will reduce people’s buying power and move them from highly idealistic to mostly pragmatic decisions. That, combined with the unmatched salary prospect of petroleum engineers with only a 4-year undergraduate degree, will increase the interest in the PE degree. - Considering that oil and gas will remain to be slightly over 50% of the energy mix, and that the energy demand will increase by 47% by 2050, we will need to produce roughly 45% more oil and gas than today. Even with the increased efficiency … we will need more petroleum engineers.