Abstract
Introduction: Neil de Marchi. Part 1 Conceptual puzzles before Cowles: autonomy, John Aldrich a re-analysis of confluence analysis, David Hendry some contributions of US agricultural economists and their close associates to statistics and econometrics, 1917-33, Karl Fox. Part 2 Structural econometrics: formalization of identification theory, Duo Qin the fall of OLS in structural estimation, Roy Epstein LSE and the British approach to time series econometrics, Christopher Gilbert. Part 3 Applied studies: the early history of the consumption function, Jim Thomas early empirical findings on the consumption function, stylized facts or fiction - a restrospective view, Aris Spanos Phillips' approximate regression, Nancy Wulwick econometrics and the theory of economic policy - the Tinbergen-Theil, contributions 40 years on, Andrew Hughes Hallett. Part 4 Critical histories: the probabilistic counter-revolution, or how stochastic concepts came to neoclassical economic theory, Philip Mirowski realism and instrumentalism in the development of econometrics, Tony Lawson.
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