History and Demography

Abstract

Fear of, and animosity toward, history is one of the facts of contemporary scholarly life. To a considerable degree, it arises from competition for resources for research -a competition carried on with rhetorical and conceptual weapons. Since most projects are considerably more expensive than individual research efforts, the rhetoric in which they are described must possess the power to move foundations, and their projectors have seldom erred in excessive modesty. Furthermore, the development costs of most projects are proving higher than expected, and the returns thus far later and smaller.' The rhetoric of three years ago thus stands in more embarrassing contrast to achievements than usual. Even without the subtle heightening that may come to any historian's prose when he is asking for money, the historian is almost bound to a vocabulary which does not endear him to his fellows. This can most easily be seen in the fact that there is no generally acceptable antonym for quantitative historian; both qualitative and non-quantitative have their different ways of sounding peculiar. When a contrast is intended, it is easy for the historian to be set off against the traditional or conventional historian, with the suspicion that only forbearance has prevented the word mere from being added to the description. Finally, the historian can invoke all the prestige of physics and the glamour of the computer; he can rely on the unconscious residues of Victorian hierarchies of the sciences, where maturity was judged in terms of the degree to which methods could be successfully applied. And should the historian skeptical of claims take refuge in the essentially craftsmanlike quality of historical work, he lays himself open to the riposte that the Luddites, too, were notable craftsmen. The underlying issue here is what meaning to attach to the word history. It has often been noticed that English lacks the facility of German in distinguishing between the course of past events and written accounts of them. There