Abstract
Long-term gust speed (GS) measurements were used to develop a winter storm atlas of the 98 most severe winter storms in Germany in the period 1981–2018 (GeWiSa). The 25 m × 25 m storm-related GS fields were reconstructed in a two-step procedure: Firstly, the median gust speed ( G S ˜ ) of all winter storms was modeled by a least-squares boosting (LSBoost) approach. Orographic features and surface roughness were used as predictor variables. Secondly, the quotient of GS related to each winter storm to G S ˜ , which was defined as storm field factor (STF), was calculated and mapped by a thin plate spline interpolation (TPS). It was found that the mean study area-wide GS associated with the 2007 storm Kyrill is highest (29.7 m/s). In Southern Germany, the 1999 storm Lothar, with STF being up to 2.2, was the most extreme winter storm in terms of STF and GS. The results demonstrate that the variability of STF has a considerable impact on the simulated GS fields. Event-related model validation yielded a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.786 for the test dataset. The developed GS fields can be used as input to storm damage models representing storm hazard. With the knowledge of the storm hazard, factors describing the vulnerability of storm exposed objects and structures can be better estimated, resulting in improved risk management.
Highlights
Strong storms chronically lead to enormous socio-economic damage [1]
The results demonstrate that the variability of storm field factor (STF) has a considerable impact on the simulated gust speed (GS) fields
In Central Europe, storm events can roughly be classified into two categories: small-scale thunderstorms, which mainly occur from May to September [3,4,5,6], and large-scale winter storms mainly occurring from October to March, which are related to intense low-pressure systems [2,7,8,9,10]
Summary
Strong storms chronically lead to enormous socio-economic damage [1]. In the period 1981–2018, storm events around the world caused total losses of about US$ 2115bn and led to approximately 446,000 fatalities [1]. As a part of Central Europe, Germany was often hit by severe winter storms, causing total losses of about US$ 37bn and 300 fatalities since 1981 [1]. High gust speed (GS) seriously affects numerous sectors including forestry [13,14,15], insurance [16], local authorities [17], wind energy [2], waterways transport [18] and air traffic [19]. In these sectors, there is great interest in spatially explicit modeled
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