Historical Validation of Integrated Transport–Land Use Model System

Abstract

The Integrated Land Use, Transportation, Environment (ILUTE) model system is an agent-based microsimulation model for the greater Toronto–Hamilton, Ontario, Canada, area. The model system uses disaggregate models of spatial socioeconomic processes to evolve the state of the greater Toronto–Hamilton area from a known base case to a predicted end state in 1-year time steps. ILUTE has reached a state of operational implementation in which historical validation runs are being undertaken. The model runs start with 100% of the population of people, families, households, and dwelling units in the greater Toronto area that was synthesized for the year 1986. Twenty-year historical simulations (1986 to 2006) have been run, with model outputs being compared with Canadian census data and Transportation Tomorrow Survey data for 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006. This paper presents recent findings from these historical validation tests and emphasizes the system's modeling of the demographic evolution of the population and the region's housing market.