Historical maps and satellite images as tools for shoreline variations and territorial changes assessment: the case study of Volturno Coastal Plain (Southern Italy)

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Anthropic pressure has caused severe variations of Mediterranean coastal areas currently hosting about 480 million people. The replacement of natural land covers with crops and urban environment coupled with the reduction of sediment supply to the coast, subsidence, Relative Sea Level Rise and the high frequency of storm events, have caused severe shoreline erosion. In this paper, we stress the key role of historical maps, topographic maps and free satellite images to forecast the rates of coastline changes and to recognize the main features of past landscapes as tools for risk reduction. This data was recorded into a Geographical Information System dedicated to coastal management that allows to compare different coastal zones and elaborate maps. The analysis was applied to the case study of Volturno Coastal Plain (VCP), extending from the town of Mondragone to Patria Lake (Campania Region, Southern Italy). Indeed, the intense territorial modification that occurred between the seventies and eighties, coupled with the exposure to coastal erosion, make the VCP a good test area. The spatial analysis algorithms allowed to outline the main features of past landscapes and how they changed from roman times to present while the coastal evolution (erosion, accretion) and possible future coastal trend was assessed with the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) software. Starting from the Bourbon domain, the reclamation caused the first great territorial change (e.g. wetlands were transformed into agricultural lands, regimentation of surperficial water) but the negative effects of antrophic pressure, as the intense urbanization of the coastal belt, emerged in the seventies of the last century. The shoreline position was defined for 9 time intervals (from 1817 to 2012) as the ratio of the distance between two shorelines and the relative elapsed time. Moreover, for the 1957–1998 and 1998–2012 time windows, the shoreline trends were calculated with the weighted linear regression method. The first trend pointed out an intensive erosional phase (mean value: 5 m/yr) for a wide sector close to the Volturno River mouth, the eroded sediment nourished the beaches of other coastal sectors. This phase was related to the reduction of River sediment supply mainly due to the construction of the Ponte Annibale dam on the Volturno River. The second (1998–2012) showed an alternation of erosion and accretion sectors due to a sediment starved condition to deltaic zone and to a sequence of 52 sea protection works in the Gaeta Gulf. Furthermore, the regression values of more recent time interval, was assumed as a scenario to draw the probable shoreline position in 2022. The overlay of this shoreline on the Technical Maps of Campania Region at 1:5000 scale highlighted the urban area that could be exposed to damages.