Historical Legacies and Their Impact on Post-Communist Voting Behaviour

Abstract

OVER THE LAST DECADE THERE HAS BEEN a spirited debate among comparativists as to whether the post-communist transition reflects the earlier transition process in Latin America and Southern Europe or whether it is unique. 1 While the literature is far-ranging and diverse, the central debate is whether the past influences the transition process to such an extent that key comparative concepts such as democratisation or modernisation lose their utility. 2 Transitologists realise that the historical experiences of post-communist countries are distinct from those of Latin American and Southern European countries. However, they question whether these experiences are determinant of behaviour and, especially, of institutions. For example, Przeworski argues that all democratising countries ‘are determined by a common destination, not by different points of departure’. 3 This debate is important because it not only highlights key differences in the interpretation of the institutional choice of regimes but also provides a contrast over the determinants of political behaviour. 4 For transitologists, general factors such as the mode of transition, institutional design and elite bargaining allow the comparison of the post-communist transitions within a broader framework. Those who embrace a legacies perspective argue that the stark differences in behaviour and institutions throughout Eastern Europe demonstrate the limitations of inter-regional as well as intra-regional comparisons. 5 An issue that has figured prominently in this debate is post-communist voting behaviour. One of the implicit assumptions of much of this literature is that socio-economic (development) variables can largely account for post-communist voter choice. More specifically, the economic voting which is so prevalent among electorates in developed countries is also found to be a feature of post-communist electorates. For example, in their analysis of Polish voting Heyns & Bialecki find that socio-economic factors largely accounted for the early support of Solidarity. 6 In seeking to understand the rise of former communist parties, Pacek argues that post-communist electorates engaged in retrospective voting, which punished the incumbent reformers. 7