Historical growth of Bristol Bay and Yukon River, Alaska chum salmon (Oncorhynchus keta) in relation to climate and inter- and intraspecific competition

Abstract

We examined Bristol Bay and Yukon River adult chum salmon scales to determine whether climate variability, such as changes in sea surface temperature and climate indices, and high pink and Asian chum salmon abundance reduced chum salmon growth. Annual marine growth increments for 1965–2006 were estimated from scale growth measurements and were modeled as a function of potential explanatory variables using a generalized least squares regression approach. First-year growth of salmon originating from Bristol Bay and the Yukon River showed increased growth in association with higher regional ocean temperatures and was negatively affected by wind mixing and ice cover. Third-year growth was lower when Asian chum salmon were more abundant. Contrary to our hypothesis, warmer large-scale sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska were also associated with reduced third-year growth. Negative effects of high abundances of Russian pink salmon on third-year growth provided some evidence for interspecific interactions, but the effects were smaller than the effects of Asian chum salmon abundance and Gulf of Alaska sea surface temperature. Although the relative effects of Asian chum salmon and sea surface temperature on the growth of Yukon and Bristol Bay chum salmon were difficult to untangle, we found consistent evidence that high abundances of Asian chum salmon contributed to a reduction in the growth of western Alaska chum salmon.